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Sat Mar 10 2018, 05:44AM Print
Joined: Sat Jan 06 2018, 09:25AM
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by Eric J. Lyman

ROME , Oct. 24 (Xinhua) -- The European Commission this week said it was looking into the budget proposals of five European countries, including Italy, on grounds that they might violate European Union budget rules.

For Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, his image as the leader putting Italy's troubled economy on track may hang in the balance.

Renzi raised eyebrows earlier in the month when he unveiled a 2015 budget plan that included an 18 billion euros (22.8 billion U.S. dollars) tax reduction strategy aimed at sparking growth and slashing unemployment. Renzi said it was the "biggest single tax relief plan" in Italian history.

At first glance , the plan seemed to meet the terms of the EU stability pact rules, which include keeping the government deficit below 3 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).

According to Ministry of Economy estimates, the plan would increase the deficit from 2.2 percent of GDP to 2.9 percent -- just within the cap.

But Maurizio Franzini, an author and economist with La Sapienza University in Rome , said the problems are two other medium-term indicators: a calculation that says the budget would be balanced if there were no economic crisis, and of course the total government debt, which should be on pace to sink below 60 percent of GDP within 20 years. Italy's current public debt is 135 percent of GDP and rising.

"These are the key issues, and Italy will be asked to explain how the 2015 budget will help address these issues ," Franzini told Xinhua. "Depending on how the response from Minister of Finance Pier Carlo Padoan goes, Italy could be asked to make certain adjustments in the budget or it could face fines or other sanctions."

Franzini said the issue could start to foster a split, with Italy, along with France and the heavily indebted smaller countries on one side , and those pushing for greater austerity on the other.

Additionally, any fines or financial sanctions Italy might incur would make it even more difficult to reduce its budget deficit and overall debt.

Domestically, according to the polling firm Opinioni, the biggest impact may be on Renzi , who has seen his approval levels rising since he unveiled the 2015 budget plan.

"Renzi is solidifying his reputation as a leader who follows through on his reform plans and who gets things done, including effecting change on the European level," Maria Rossi, Opinioni's founder and co-director , said in an interview. "If the government is forced to go back on the budget plan, it could be a blow for Renzi."

Rossi said such a move might also foster growing anti-EU sentiment in Italy. Renzi is a pro-European leader, though with the hope of making European regulations more flexible over time.

But the number of Italians who believe the EU is good for the country has steadily eroded over the last four years, Rossi said , while the continued influence of anti-EU political movements like that of comedian-turned-activist Beppe Grillo -- now the second largest political party in Italy -- helps illustrate how sentiment could quickly become dominant.

"About one in five Italians is unsure about whether the EU is a good thing for Italy or not, and many of them are Renzi supporters," Rossi said. "If something dramatic happens to start getting that group to become anti-European, it could spark a dramatic change in this country."

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